Despite the strong gains recorded by equities across the world, most global benchmarks are still some way away from their previous peaks. The MSCI World index is positioned exactly half-way up the decline that ensued after the sub-prime crisis. This implies that while there can be a little more upside in the initial part of 2010, the risk of the third leg of the downtrend unfolding in 2010 persists.

Many of the developed market benchmarks including the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are also positioned at the 50 per cent retracement mark. It needs to be recalled that the in 1930 Dow retraced 53 per cent of the slide recorded in the previous year. But once this rebound ended, the Dow fell relentlessly losing more than 80 per cent from the peak of its counter-trend up-move.

A perusal of the leading global benchmarks reveals that most of them are yet to get past the critical 61.8 per cent retracement mark or are struggling to break free from here. Many European benchmarks and even the Shanghai Composite Index of China have retraced only 38.2 per cent of their previous fall. These retracement levels imply that it can not be concluded with certainty that the bear market has ended and the rally of 2009 can still turn out to be a counter-trend up move in a protracted structural down trend.

It also needs to be borne in mind that there has not been a significant correction in most indices since March last year and a 3-wave formation is currently drawing to a close in most charts.

The situation is a little more secure for Sensex and some of the benchmarks of Latin American countries that are well above the 61.8 per cent retracement level or are above or close to their all-time highs. Resumption of the bear market in other markets will drag these indices down, but the decline can halt well above the March lows. — Lokeshwarri S.K

Source : HBL

Sensex is back again above 17K but the stock prices are yet lower than they were earlier.

Every thing which has gone up has to come down and can again go up that is what the state of Indian stock market is.

We saw lows of 8K on Sensex last year. This year it bounced back to around 18K levels. More than 100% return in a year! Sounds great. But the stock prices have yet not caught the momentum specially the small caps.

Its now time for a fresh new year 2010. Markets may remain positive for a while. Certain factors restraining the markets to go up are:

Global factors – liquidity, FII Investment, etc.

While internal factors such as abnormal rise in food price, budget coming soon, liquidity crunch!

Simply speaking markets may rise for a while and may witness a small correction sooner or later.

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The Sensex is an “index”. What is an index? An index is basically an indicator. It gives you a general idea about whether most of the stocks have gone up or most of the stocks have gone down.

The Sensex is an indicator of all the major companies of the BSE.

The Nifty is an indicator of all the major companies of the NSE.

If the Sensex goes up, it means that the prices of the stocks of most of the major companies on the BSE have gone up. If the Sensex goes down, this tells you that the stock price of most of the major stocks on the BSE have gone down.

Just like the Sensex represents the top stocks of the BSE, the Nifty represents the top stocks of the NSE.

Just in case you are confused, the BSE, is the Bombay Stock Exchange and the NSE is the National Stock Exchange. The BSE is situated at Bombay and the NSE is situated at Delhi. These are the major stock exchanges in the country. There are other stock exchanges like the Calcutta Stock Exchange etc. but they are not as popular as the BSE and the NSE.Most of the stock trading in the country is done though the BSE & the NSE.

Besides Sensex and the Nifty there are many other indexes. There is an index that gives you an idea about whether the mid-cap stocks go up and down. This is called the “BSE Mid-cap Index”. There are many other types of indexes.

There is an index for the metal stocks. There is an index for the FMCG stocks. There is an index for the automobile stocks etc.

Also read : What is Sensex 30 & NIFTY 50 ?

U.S. Markets ended the week on the positive note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at 8076:

Up 1.5% for the day, Down 0.68% for the week, Down 7.98% YTD

The Nasdaq or better known as Technology Index did fairly well in comparison closing at:

Up 2.55% for the day, Up 1.27% for the week, Up 7.44% YTD

The broad S&P500 Index closed at 866:

Up 1.68% for the day, Down 0.39% for the week, Down 4.10% YTD

This upcoming week there a lot of events which will influence the markets:

April 29: Marks the 100th day of President Obama’s Presidency. A report card of sorts will be presented. Where market, american public as well as media from around the world will be scrutinizing the new president’s policies and performance.

April 29: The GDP number or the rate of growth of american economy will be released on Wednesday.

April 29: The FED will give its Interest Rate decision

April 30: Personal Income and Spending information for the consumer for the month of April.

May 1: U.S. Auto makers report car sales for the month of April.

May 4: The Treasury Bank Stress Report is released.

There is far too much hype around this piece of information. It is not that a lot will be known at the end of day about the true health of each of the banks and it is well known that nearly all banks will get a clean report. But Wall Street has raised its expectations and there is much expectation which may lead to uncertainty and volatility in the market for this week. Banking stocks will be under the scanner and one can expect wild swings in the share prices.

How all this affects Indian Markets?

This is a short spread trading week with only 3 active trading days. There is expiry on wednesday the 29th which will be our last day of the week. Thursday and Friday markets will be closed. Elections results and speculations of who will form the next government will lead the market sentiment next week.

Over all I will be cautious in my moves this week.

-Tushar

stockezy.com

NIFTY has a support at 2790 and 2710 and a resistace at 2950 and 3025
Sensex has a support at 9100 and 8910 and resistance at 9540 and 9740

Do you know Zimbabwe rolls out 100 trillion Z$ notes !

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Nothing much fascinating this year for the Indian Stock Markets. In the third week of the year market saw a night mare. Except that we saw many stocks reaching their lifetime high in Jan first and second week. Third week onwards investors started loosing their money as there we two consecutive lower circuits on 21 and 22 on Indian Markets.

Since the peek of some 21K markets fell at 7800 odd and now are at 9K levels. It lost its shine as it looses 60% in not even a year.

Dalal Street turned into Halal Street.

I doubt if any one booked their full profits.

This year we saw both the phases of the stock markets – Bull Market (for 15 days odd) and rest of the year bear phase.

Just don’t forget – “Every thing which has gone up has to come down again”

There are many more things, but these are the once which I think are of immense importance.

Sectors which Outperformed.

I can say none of them all are in red.

The worst hit sectors.

Reality / Infrastructure.

Metals.

Auto.

Airline.

Stocks which declared good dividend.

Disa India declared 2000% dividend on a face value of Rs. 10

Colgate Palmolive declared 900% on a face value of Re. 1

Best Performing Mutual Funds of the year – Download File

People staying in Mumbai if you want to invest in Mutual Funds pls do contact here.

Happy New Year 2009.

Happy Investing!

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]]> http://www.moneygain.in/2008/12/31/best-and-worst-of-2008-for-the-indian-stock-markets/feed/ 0 http://www.moneygain.in/2008/12/27/markets-may-recover-from-next-week/ http://www.moneygain.in/2008/12/27/markets-may-recover-from-next-week/#comments Sat, 27 Dec 2008 14:21:00 +0000 Chirag http://www.indianmoneyplus.com/?p=378

Technical analyst, Vishwas Agarwal, while commenting on the market said, “From Monday or Tuesday onwards, market will start recovering for second and last round of current upmove. As this market will make next stop before January 14 and from there onwards, corporate results will start which are expected to be weak.“

“We have only around 10 working days to make money and exit from weak stock. 2,876 is the basic support and 2,976 is important to cross for a strong upmove. Overall market view is trade with stoploss only with no major big target for any upside in Nifty or any stock,“ added Agarwal. – MyIRIS

We never needed it more: a Santa Claus rally. The big question is whether it will happen in 2008? Much like the Wall Street, history
Santa and stocks
says Indian stock markets tend to rally from Christmas Eve to the New Year’s Day (or the first trading day of the New Year).

FIIs or mutual funds
or big investors may not be bullish but if Santa has his way, investors will have something nice to finish the year, which saw Sensex lose over 50% of its value.

If investors want some hope, they can take heart from the fact that from 2000 onwards the sensex has never given negative returns for this period, which falls within the Yuletide.

Santa Claus rallies are said to happen as people tend to consume more, invest for tax breaks and more importantly, pessimists stay on vacation during this week, say experts.

For the rally to happen in 2008, the start seems to be a little off the track with Sensex losing 240 point on Friday. But people haven’t lost hope.

“An encore of 2003, 2004 or even 2006 could see Sensex gain anything between 3% and 6%. The sentiment not withstanding, we never know what markets might throw at us,” an institutional head at a local brokerage said.

A rally at this point could be a possibility because downsides from slowdown and lesser profits in third quarter are already there in the prices to a certain extent, he said.

For a 6-7 day window that exists between Christmas Eve and the first trading of the New Year, Santa has made decent stops at the Indian stock markets. – ET

The Full week was dull almost every day we saw a red stroke or a downtrend but an excellent pulback of 464 points on SENSEX i.e 5.5%. on Friday.

The 30-share index, which opened higher by 160 points, surged further by 323.93 to 8,774.94 points despite weak global markets.