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Sensex close well above 10500 today.

Chirag — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:38:00 +0000

Markets turn out to be bullish with strong global cues.
China announced a stimulus package to boost growth. Metals, power and capital goods stocks were the major gainers in today’s upmove.
All the sectoral indices ended in the green. BSE Metal Index surged 11.04 per cent, BSE Power Index climbed 8.36 per cent, BSE Oil&gas Index moved 6.28 per cent higher.

Sterlite Industries, up 14.16 per cent, was the standout performer in Monday’s trade. Tata Steel (12.78%), Tata Power (11.89%), Reliance Infrastructure (11.29%), Bharti Airtel (10.85%) and Hindalco Industries (9.76%) posted significant gains.

Among frontline stocks, ITC (-1.54%) and Maruti Suzuki (-0.6%) ended with losses.

Market breadth on BSE showed 1692 advances against 856 declines.
More readings ET.

Three Indians among WSJ top 50 women to watch for this year

Chirag — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:35:00 +0000

Led by Pepsico Chief Indra Nooyi, three Indians have made their way into the Wall Street Journal’s global list of 50 women to watch for this year.

Cisco’s Chief Technology Officer Padmasree Warrior and INX Media’s Chief Executive Indrani Mukerjea are the other two women who made the cut.

Ranked at second spot, snacks and beverages major Pepsico Chief Nooyi is the lone Indian in the top 10. Warrior and Mukerjea are ranked at 31st and 41st positions, respectively.

At the top of the heap is Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Chairman Sheila Bair. Barbara Desoer, who is the President, Mortgage, Home Equity & Insurance Services, at the Bank of America, is placed at the third position.

Writing on Nooyi, the publication said that confronted this year by high commodity prices, a downturn in US beverage sales, and other consequences of the souring economy, the Pepsico Chief did not shy from some bold steps.

“She has been pushing the Purchase, NY, company in new directions since arriving 14 years ago as head of corporate strategy.

“Her drive to get Pepsi to buy Tropicana and Quaker Oats helped shift the company’s soda-and-potato-chip-dominated portfolio toward healthier drinks and snacks,” WSJ said.

Others in the top 10 are People’s Bank of China’s Deputy Governor Hu Xiaolian (4th), French Finance Minister Christine Lagarde (5), Kraft Foods’ Chief Executive Irene Rosenfeld (6), Temasek Holdings’ Chief Hon Ching (7), DuPont President Ellen Kullman (8), Xerox Chairman Anne Mulcahy (9) and Laura Tyson (10), who is the Professor of Business at the University of California, Berkeley.
Source: – ET

Ashok Leyland to work 3 days a week.

Chirag — Fri, 07 Nov 2008 12:02:00 +0000

“Demand for commercial vehicles has fallen owing to inadequate funds for buyers and high interest costs”
India’s second largest maker of trucks, buses and other commercial vehicles by sales, Ashok Leyland Ltd has decided to halve the number of days its factories will produce vehicles to three a week, a day after its bigger rival, Tata Motors Ltd announced a three-day shutdown at its Jamshedpur unit to keep inventory levels in check.

The Chennai-headquartered Ashok Leyland said in a statement that during the last few weeks, demand for heavy duty commercial vehicles has fallen owing to inadequate funds for buyers and high interest costs. That has led it to moderate production for the next two months until December-end, the company said.

The decision, the auto maker added, has also been partially influenced by problems encountered by its suppliers as a result of power shortage in some parts of the country. Vinod Dasari, the firm’s chief operating officer, said it hopes the demand to rebound by January 2009.

The production cuts at the two firms follow lowered sales in the past few months. Tata Motors reported a decline of 29% in October 2008 sales to 19,154 units from 27,103 units in the year-ago month. The decline was mainly led by the medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, that shrank by nearly half.

Ashok Leyland reported an overall drop of of 50.2% in its sales in the same period.

Even Eicher Motors Ltd, the third largest player in terms of sales, reported an overall decline of 79% in its domestic sales in September to 1,552 units from 2,539 units, a decline of 39%. The company has yet to release its October sales numbers.

The Indian commercial vehicle industry is reeling under a slowdown in demand triggered primarily by the paucity of and high cost of vehicle financing. Some 95% of commercial vehicles sold in the country are bought or leased with the backing of vehicle finance.

“There is an intrinsic demand in the market, it’s just that there is a lack of finance,” said Siddhartha Lal, managing director, Eicher Motors.

With banks slowing on new sanctions and disbursals of commercial vehicle loans, non-banking finance companies such as Shriram Transport Finance Co. have stepped up their loan portfolio but seem to be unable to fill the void created by reticent banks, experts said.

Still, with liquidity easing in credit markets, Mahantesh Sabarad, an analyst with Centrum Broking, said he expected a reversal of the slowdown. “It’s more of a temporary phenomenon; once the liquidity situation improves, I don’t see any reason for sales to continue on a depressed note,” he said. “Operators have merely postponed and not stopped purchases.”

Despite the slowdown facing the industry, plans of multinational truck makers that got into alliances with Indian partners in the last two years remain unaffected, company executives said.

Rakesh Kalra, managing director of Mahindra Navistar Automotives Ltd, Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd’s commercial vehicle venture, said plans for starting production were on schedule for 2009. “We don’t have any plans to re-look the capital expenditure or volume plans,” he said.

Shares of Ashok Leyland fell 9.33% to Rs17.50 each, shrinking faster than the broader market. Eicher Motors closed at Rs220.40, down 2.48%, and Tata Motors shares sank 12.17% to Rs159.15 each on the Bombay Stock Exchange, whose benchmark Sensex closed down 3.86%.
Source: – Livemint

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Stock Market Investing and Gambling.

Chirag — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 14:21:00 +0000

One of the biggest myth among many people is that they think stock market investing is just like gambling.
They shy off from investing as they think it is gambling.
Many of our parents and grand parents didn’t invest as they thought investing is just like gambling otherwise all of them have been just like Warren Buffet. If not at lest multi-millionaire.

Meaning of Investing and Gambling.
Merriam-Webster’s first definition for “invest” is : “to commit (money) in order to earn a financial return.” And the second definition is “to make use of for future benefits or advantages.”

What about “gamble”? The first meaning is “to play a game for money or property” and the second is “to stake something on a contingency.”

Some say it (Investing) is very much like gambling. While some say its myth comparing stock markets with gambling.
What I feel – In true sense if you go and see investing is buying the stock buy predicting the future (fundamentally or technically)with a sole aim to earn a profit. While in gambling you cant predict any future , people blindly put money without knowing the future.

There are some important differences here, though. Investment brokers may live off salaries or commissions, but the day trader depends directly on the market for income. The gambler may have a lot of good days, but the bad week will sap the earnings from a few good days. There is no doubt that the psychology behind gambling and active trading seems alarmingly similar, while gambling is considered illegal and illicit in many parts of the world, or at least looked down upon, day trading is mysterious and high sounding.

My point is that if you study the trends of the stock market, you can always gain with minimal (if any) loss. Gambling precludes some level of loss (and hopefully gain) — even the best poker players have lost money, although they feel that their skills can outwit most casual players.

The other difference is the expectation. Gamblers don’t go to Las Vegas with $100 hoping to come back with $115. They want to double or triple their money quickly. Investing is slower. You hope to double or triple your money, but over decades, not minutes or hours.

Markets depend on trends . Gambling is to go by flow.
Study and knowledge in markets is essential. In gambling a good knowledge base is not required , it depends on luck.

PS – At the end I wont say stock market is not gambling , a bit of it is gambling i.e. Day trading. There are speculators (gamblers) in stock markets who may act as a bear or even a bull which affect the price of the stock on a high level.
Take for an instance a few week ago rumors for ICICI bank becoming bankrupt were spread by a broker in Mumbai. So he speculated the stock price.

Shying of investing in Stock is knot done. Warren Buffet became rich by investing. So can you.

Happy Investing.

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Nifty,Sensex end 3% up as rate sensitives soar.

Chirag — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:23:00 +0000

Equities surged to close sharply higher on Tuesday as aggressive buying emerged in realty, banking and power stocks in the last hour of trade.
In a meeting with the finance minister P Chidambaram, PSU bankers reached a consensus to cut interest rates on advances by 75 basis points, while on deposits by 50 bps, say reports.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex closed at 10,668.45, up 330.77 points or 3.20 per cent. The index touched a high of 10,668 and low of 10,116.22.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 3151 up 3.52 per cent. The broader index touched an intra-day high of 3152.30 and an intra-day low of 2985.

BSE Midcap Index was up 2.88 per cent and BSE Smallcap Index moved 2.90 per cent higher.

DLF (17.13 per cent), Jaiprakash Associates (9.58 per cent), Ranbaxy Laboratories (9.27per cent), Tata Power (8.47per cent) and ITC (8.45 per cent) were the top Sensex gainers.

Satyam Computers (-7.41 per cent), TCS (-7.38 per cent), Wipro (-4.80 per cent), Infosys Technologies (-3.32 per cent) and Sterlite Industries (-2 per cent) were the losers.

Market breadth was positive on the BSE with 1806 advances and 782 declines.

Source: – ET
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A cool site on the Indian Stock Markets.

Chirag — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:04:00 +0000

We see many blogs coming and many blogs disappearing every day.
I recently came across a site called Stockezy.com
A brilliant and a clean site on Indian Markets.
Every one has a Tip , New and an Opinion thats what I like in Stockezy that a common person can share it over there.

Firstly to get started you need to register. Click Here to register.
Then you can submit Stock Tip , News & Opinion.
More over it has an excellent Portfolio manager and all that for free.
It has a high quality of Stock quote provider with good decent charts.
I compare stockezy better than stockbuddy and various other sites.
The portfolio manager can be compared with various sites such as myiris , rediff and many more.

Happy Investing.

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India VIX: Volatility Index

Chirag — Sat, 01 Nov 2008 04:06:00 +0000

VIX is a measure of the implied volatility of Nifty 50 Index Option prices over the next 30 day period. It is an estimate of investor sentiment and is a helpful indicator of the amount the market is expected to “fluctuate” in the near term. Higher the implied volatility, higher the India VIX value and vice-versa.

How to interpret VIX?

The VIX is quoted in terms of percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the Nifty 50 Index over the next 30-day period, on an annualized basis. For example, if the VIX is at 15, this represents an expected annual change of 15%; thus one can infer that the index option markets expect the Nifty 50 to move up or down over the next 30-day period. That is, if, for example, the Nifty 50 is currently at 100, then the estimated 30-day change in the Nifty 50 will be within 4.3 points up or down.

Interpret VIX on graph.
Click here.

First Step – By Share Khan.

Chirag — Tue, 28 Oct 2008 03:30:00 +0000

The new bees in markets can always check out and get a free E- Book from Share Khan (Stock Broking) Just by filling a simple form Click here.
Its interesting to read and understand.

- Chirag.
Happy Diwali.

P.S – First Step is a Unique program for those who are new to investing.

Sensex recovers more than 850 points from days low.

Chirag — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 11:31:00 +0000

Equities staged sharp recovery on Monday but still closed in the red. Major recovery was seen in real estate and oil&gas stocks while auto and FMCG stocks ended with major losses.

Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensex bounced from intra-day low of 7,697.39 to end 2.07 per cent or 180.49 points lower at 8,520.58, down.

National Stock Exchange’s Nifty ended at 2532.4, down 51.60 points or 2 per cent. The index touched an intra-day low of 2,252.75.

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More companies show fall in profit, losses in Q2

Chirag — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 07:27:00 +0000

The tide for Indian firms seems to be turning. As much as 41 per cent of companies announcing their second-quarter results have registered a drop in profit.

From the sample size of 657 companies, 218 firms have shown a drop in profit, while 51 firms reported losses against profits in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.

The net profit of 218 firms dropped 30.5 per cent and net sales rose at a slower pace of 17.7 per cent. In contrast, these firms saw net profit growth of 19.23 per cent on net sales growth of 18.69 per cent for the quarter ending September 2007.

Apart from slower sales growth in sales, rising input costs seem to have narrowed the operating margins of these 218 companies fully 592 basis points from 21.25 per cent in the quarter ending September 2007 to 15.33 per cent in the same quarter of 2008.

Companies reporting losses in the second quarter have registered a combined loss of Rs 669 crore against Rs 724 crore in the corresponding quarter of the previous year — and a net profit of Rs 734 crore in the first quarter of the current fiscal year.

Most of this quarter’s loss-makers are firms in sectors like automobiles, cement, metals, the media, capital goods and fertilisers, which were hard hit by rising input costs that could not be offset by price increases.

Ambuja Cement, Hindustan Zinc, Grasim Industries and Bharat Heavy Electricals are among the heavyweights that have suffered on account of rising input costs.

Ambuja Cement, now part of the Holcim group, admitted that its performance was affected mainly due to rise in the cost of coal, freight and fly ash. The firm was unable to pass on the higher costs to consumers under pressure from the government, which was attempting to rein in a sharp rise in inflation.

Power and fuel costs, which increased a steep 35 per cent, seemed to have contributed the most to the margin contraction.

Hindustan Zinc was affected by a decline in zinc and lead prices by around 40 per cent each on the London Metal Exchange. At the same time, mining and manufacturing expenses rose from 14.3 per cent of revenues in the second quarter of previous year to 29.4 per cent this year due to a sharp increase in power and fuel costs, mainly because the company imports thermal coal on a spot basis.

Overseas debt, mostly external commercial borrowing (ECBs), foreign currency convertible bonds (FCCBs) and hedging of export revenue and dollar are among some other factors that have hurt companies like JSW Steel, Maruti Suzuki, GTL, Jubilant Organosys, Wockhardt and Cipla, among others.

JSW Steel had to set aside Rs. 268.35 crore for exchange loss on account of the depreciation of the rupee against various foreign currencies. Finolex suffered forex and derivative losses of Rs 59.1 crore and commodity hedging related losses of Rs 1.9 crore primarily for importing raw material.

Wockhardt provisioned Rs 55.32 crore for currency rate fluctuation and Rs 1.09 crore for interest rate derivative losses.

HT Media, which registered an 18 per cent rise in net sales, saw its net profit decline 49 per cent due to high raw material costs, including higher newsprint prices and also because of a jump in advertising costs. The media company stepped up advertisements to promote its Delhi edition.

INDIA INC FEELS THE PINCH (% change)
	Growth in sales		Growth in net profit		Operating margins
	Q1 08-09	Q2 08-09	Q1 08-09	Q2 08-09	Q1 08-09	Q2 08-09
Total sample (657 cos)	30.16	30.22	7.77	5.74	18.03	17.18
Rise in profit (311 cos)	32.69	34.95	18.01	28.50	19.96	19.97
Decline in profit (218 cos)	20.03	17.74	-19.08	-30.51	17.12	15.33
Profit to loss (51 cos)	53.16	39.45	-12.75	loss*	8.21	1.23
Loss to profit (30 cos)	21.48	36.93	1633.07#	Profit (p)	10.94	10.31
Both quarter losses (47 cos)	14.31	27.85	Profit (l)	Loss (b)	-3.80	-2.96
*Net loss of Rs 669.16 crore against net profit of Rs 724 over Q2 2007-08 Profit (p) net profit of Rs 96.52 crore vs net loss of Rs 67.75 crore over Q2 2007-08 Profit (l) net profit of Rs 198.77 crore vs net loss of Rs 234.25 crore over Q2 2007-08 loss (b) net loss of Rs 435.09 crore vs net loss of Rs 247.16 crore over Q2 2007-08 #Net profit of Rs 100.05 crore for the quarter ended June 2008 against Rs 6.35 crore for the quarter ended June 2007

Chennai Petroleum reported a loss of Rs 100 crore on account of weak refining margins of $1.7 per barrel. The refiner also suffered losses of Rs 190 crore on crude purchases and lower refinery throughput of 2.3 MMT compared with a run-rate of 2.7 MMT on account of a maintenance shutdown.

Jubilant Organosys reported net loss of Rs 69.57 crore, having set aside Rs 174.19 crore for FCCB-related exchange losses and other cash charges.

Source: – Business Standard.